Short-term prediction of the power generation of wind turbines.

Abstract

Since the erection of the first wind turbine in Hungary in 2001, the proportion of power generated from wind has increased considerably, furthermore an even faster growth is expected in the next years. However, the more widespread use of wind energy plays a role in the fact that deviations from the international exchange schedule are becoming more frequent.

In this paper we summarize the present situation concerning the usage of wind power in Hungary, detail the results and the limitations of our investigations carried out on the public data of the meteorological forecasts that are the primary sources of power generation schedules of wind power plants and suggest possible improvements on the reliability of the schedules based on the forecasts.