Statistical Regression Model for Annual Hourly Price Estimation in the Spanish Electricity Market

Abstract

This article aims to obtain an annual hourly profile of Spanish electricity market prices until 2050, by estimating a statistical regression model that captures the variables that influence price formation. This model captures hourly price fluctuations, allowing identifying key dynamics that affect the planning and operation of the power system. A significant increase in wind and solar photovoltaic energy is estimated, reaching a renewable penetration of 88.36 % in 2050. As a result, the average OMIE price would be reduced by 70 %. Estimating long-term hourly electricity market prices is key to planning investments, managing costs and mitigating market risks.