An ensemble-in-time forecast of solar irradiance

Authors

  • D. Díaz Department of Chemical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela Author
  • J.A. Souto Department of Chemical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela Author
  • A. Rodríguez Department of Chemical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela Author
  • S. Saavedra Department of Chemical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela Author
  • J.J. Casares Department of Chemical Engineering School of Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24084/repqj10.311

Keywords:

Solar irradiance forecast, WRF, ensemble, validation

Abstract

The increment of solar energy production requires an accurate estimation of surface solar irradiance. A forecast of surface solar irradiance allows estimate the energy production, and therefore minimizes the fluctuations in the electric grid supply.

In this work, hourly solar irradiance is estimated by means of the Weather Research Forecast meteorological model (WRF) in operational mode along 1-year. Different WRF outputs were combined to obtain an ensemble-in-time forecast, with four members. This solar irradiance forecast is validated against ground measurements at three locations in the northwest (NW) of Galicia (NW of the Iberian Peninsula) along one year.

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Published

2024-01-16

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 3 (2012)

Section

Articles