Influence of the reliability of short-term electrical power forecasting for a wind farm on the generation cost per MWh. A case study in the Canary Islands

Authors

  • Ulises Portero Author
  • Sergio Velázquez Author
  • María Miranda Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24084/repqj13.271

Keywords:

short-term wind power prediction, wind energy cost, electric energy market

Abstract

The generation cost of a wind farm has generally been studied on the basis of two factors: the initial investment cost and the operating and maintenance cost. The problems caused in an electrical system by deviations between the actual electrical power generated by a wind farm and the electrical power estimated by prediction models need to be corrected. These deviations result in an additional economic cost. This paper evaluates the deviation cost per unit of energy generated by wind farms and analyses the contribution of this cost to the total production cost. The study undertaken in this paper has been made specific to the Canary Islands (Spain). It can be deduced from the results of the study that the deviation cost can amount to between 1.5% and 15.5% of the cost of producing electrical energy generated by a wind farm depending, amongst other parameters, on the error made in the prediction. Wind farms that are otherwise deemed profitable may not be considered so if the deviation cost is taken into account.

Author Biographies

  • Ulises Portero

    School of Industrial and Civil Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

    Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain.

    Tel.: +34 928 45 96 71, Fax: +34 928 45 73 19. E-mail address: uportero@yahoo.es

  • Sergio Velázquez

    Department of Electronics and Automatics Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

    Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands (Spain).

    Tel.: +34 928 45 96 71, Fax: +34 928 45 73 19. E-mail address: sergio.velazquezmedina@ulpgc.es

  • María Miranda

    School of Industrial and Civil Engineering, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

    Campus de Tafira s/n, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Canary Islands, Spain.

    Tel.: +34 928 45 96 71, Fax: +34 928 45 73 19. E-mail  mmirandallobet@gmail.com

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Published

2024-01-12

Issue

Vol. 13 No. 2 (2015)

Section

Articles