ESTIMATE OF AVERAGE ENERGY GENERATED IN A RIVER BASIN BY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR SMALL HYDROPOWER PLANTS

Abstract

aspects analyzed during the first stage of the deployment of a small hydropower in Brazil, the Estimate of Hydropower Potential. In this scenario, knowledge of water availability is a fundamental part of the hydrologic studies of a river basin, studies pertaining to the stage of the cycle to determine the flow of a river or precipitation in a location or region, including its temporal variability. In this context, this work has the objective to perform a statistical analysis to determine the values of the variables that affect the calculation of the average energy: a reference flow, the average monthly flows and the permanence curve. It was used the data from streamflow time series 1942-2013 of the river Tijuco, in the state of Minas Gerais. In the analysis of the variables, it was necessary to know and study agencies and legislation, a probabilistic model and computational tools to help determine the values. It was found that the statistical hydrology in the process of estimating the average power for hydroelectric projects provide reliable data and that the interpretation of the data can support the decision in the phase of projects